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STIR: Hawkish Reaction To UK PMIs, 65bp Of BoE Cuts Priced Through '25

STIR
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Hawkish initial market reaction in BoE STIRs on the firmer-than-expected headline PMI readings.

  • However, the details are a little more mixed with gilts and GBP STIRs stabilising since. The survey hawkish on inflation but dovish on growth and the labour market (see our previous bullet for greater detail).
  • BoE-dated OIS are little changed to 6bp more hawkish vs. pre-data levels.
  • 90% odds of a cut still priced for next month’s meeting, followed by 40bp priced through December (vs. 42.5bp heading into the data) and 65bp of cuts priced through year-end (vs. 71bp pre-data).
  • SONIA futures +0.5 to -3.5.

BoE Meeting

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Hawkish initial market reaction in BoE STIRs on the firmer-than-expected headline PMI readings.

  • However, the details are a little more mixed with gilts and GBP STIRs stabilising since. The survey hawkish on inflation but dovish on growth and the labour market (see our previous bullet for greater detail).
  • BoE-dated OIS are little changed to 6bp more hawkish vs. pre-data levels.
  • 90% odds of a cut still priced for next month’s meeting, followed by 40bp priced through December (vs. 42.5bp heading into the data) and 65bp of cuts priced through year-end (vs. 71bp pre-data).
  • SONIA futures +0.5 to -3.5.

BoE Meeting

Keep reading...Show less