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NBP: Hawkish Tweaks To Statement May Be Reflected In Governor's Rhetoric (2/2)

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  • According to mBank, the statement does not suggest that the MPC had any heated discussion on interest-rate cuts. It features no dovish clues with several slightly hawkish hits. In their view, it pushes back the likely starting point of the easing cycle towards the end of the year. They note that an "elephant in the room" is materialising in the form of new EU spending plans, new ideas for stimulating consumption in China, and the likely halt to ECB rate cuts in 2H25. The NBP made no references to these factors, but they will grow in importance over time. They now expect the NBP to cut rates by 50bp in 4Q25 and think that rates could reach 4% in 2026. At the same time, they note that the MPC's chaotic reaction function means that the panel could adjust rates suddenly and without any prior guidance, at any meeting.
  • Millennium Bank note that the new projection, especially an underwhelming 2027 growth forecast (+2.7% Y/Y), give reasons to consider interest-rate cuts. However, hawkish changes to the statement do not provide reasons to believe that cuts could be delivered soon. They still expect some limited amount of easing in 2H25 but its exact size is uncertain and data-dependent.
  • Pekao describe the tone of the statement as "definitely hawkish and leaving little space for hopes for any imminent monetary easing." The Council seems to be more certain that the unfreezing of energy prices will boost inflation in 2H25, while the shape of adjustments to macroeconomic projections suggests a greater emphasis on extra-consumption growth engines in 2025. In their view, starting rate cuts in 2H25 will require a significant pivot in the July projection, unless the MPC abandons any plans to initiate an easing cycle.
  • PKO write that the new CPI and GDP projections do not leave any doubt about the MPC's stance, with a higher inflation outlook for 2026 coupled a higher GDP growth path likely to delay the start of discussions on rate cuts, even if the 2026 CPI forecast is a function of the NBP's assumptions on energy prices.
  • Santander write that the statement was little changed but appeared to be slightly more hawkish, with the Council noting several times that the aggregate demand is rising. They assume that the extension of the household energy price freeze was the main reason for the adjustments to inflation projections for 2025 and 2026. The new forecasts support the Governor's view that the central bank should not rush into rate cuts and Santander expect the first rate adjustment in July.
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  • According to mBank, the statement does not suggest that the MPC had any heated discussion on interest-rate cuts. It features no dovish clues with several slightly hawkish hits. In their view, it pushes back the likely starting point of the easing cycle towards the end of the year. They note that an "elephant in the room" is materialising in the form of new EU spending plans, new ideas for stimulating consumption in China, and the likely halt to ECB rate cuts in 2H25. The NBP made no references to these factors, but they will grow in importance over time. They now expect the NBP to cut rates by 50bp in 4Q25 and think that rates could reach 4% in 2026. At the same time, they note that the MPC's chaotic reaction function means that the panel could adjust rates suddenly and without any prior guidance, at any meeting.
  • Millennium Bank note that the new projection, especially an underwhelming 2027 growth forecast (+2.7% Y/Y), give reasons to consider interest-rate cuts. However, hawkish changes to the statement do not provide reasons to believe that cuts could be delivered soon. They still expect some limited amount of easing in 2H25 but its exact size is uncertain and data-dependent.
  • Pekao describe the tone of the statement as "definitely hawkish and leaving little space for hopes for any imminent monetary easing." The Council seems to be more certain that the unfreezing of energy prices will boost inflation in 2H25, while the shape of adjustments to macroeconomic projections suggests a greater emphasis on extra-consumption growth engines in 2025. In their view, starting rate cuts in 2H25 will require a significant pivot in the July projection, unless the MPC abandons any plans to initiate an easing cycle.
  • PKO write that the new CPI and GDP projections do not leave any doubt about the MPC's stance, with a higher inflation outlook for 2026 coupled a higher GDP growth path likely to delay the start of discussions on rate cuts, even if the 2026 CPI forecast is a function of the NBP's assumptions on energy prices.
  • Santander write that the statement was little changed but appeared to be slightly more hawkish, with the Council noting several times that the aggregate demand is rising. They assume that the extension of the household energy price freeze was the main reason for the adjustments to inflation projections for 2025 and 2026. The new forecasts support the Governor's view that the central bank should not rush into rate cuts and Santander expect the first rate adjustment in July.