MNI BRIEF: Fed Review Must Incorporate Many Scenarios - Kugler

MNI BRIEF: Fed's Kugler Says Makes Sense To Hold For Some Time

MNI BRIEF: Job On Inflation Not Done, Care Needed - BOE Pill

MNI BRIEF: Mexico Inflation Down To 3.59% In January

MNI BRIEF: Tariffs Force CBRT To Hike 2025 Inflation Forecast

MNI China Daily Summary: Friday, February 7

MNI: US DEC CONSUMER CREDIT +$40.8B

MNI: BAKER HUGHES US RIG COUNT 586; OIL RIGS 480; GAS RIGS 100

BAKER HUGHES CANADA RIG COUNT 249; OIL RIGS 177; GAS RIGS 72

GERMANY: Economy Ministry Lowers 2025 Growth Forecast As Expected

MNI EXCLUSIVE: EU-Mercosur Deal Close, But Likely Short-Lived - Officials

GERMANY: Kukies Considers Potential Non-Implementation Of 2024 Suppl' Budget

© 1982-2025 MNI. All rights reserved.
Terms | Privacy
Log Out
Free Trial

HUNGARY: Headline CPI Expected to Rise Outside of NBH Tolerance Range

HUNGARY
CEEMEAEM BulletBulletEmerging Market NewsHungary
  • Goldman Sachs expect headline CPI to rise to 4.3% y/y. The sudden jump above the target range mainly reflects base effects, but their forecast also incorporates further strength in core momentum – due to recent HUF weakness – and the continued rise in retail fuel prices.
  • ING forecast yet another strong monthly repricing with the headline reading expected to be at 0.5% m/m in December. They see fuel, unprocessed food and services prices driving price pressures higher. Last year’s low base means that the year-on-year headline print will jump out of the central bank’s inflation tolerance band, reaching 4.5%. ING’s forecast is only slightly higher than the NBH’s projection, so they don’t expect any major monetary policy or market reaction.
  • JP Morgan say inflation likely jumped to outside the NBH target band in December, to an estimated 4.2% y/y. The main driver of the move is fuel, which JPM see accelerating from 0.7% to 7.7%. Core CPI as measured by the NBH is likely to have stayed relatively flattish.
167 words

To read the full story

Close

Why MNI

MNI is the leading provider

of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.

Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
  • Goldman Sachs expect headline CPI to rise to 4.3% y/y. The sudden jump above the target range mainly reflects base effects, but their forecast also incorporates further strength in core momentum – due to recent HUF weakness – and the continued rise in retail fuel prices.
  • ING forecast yet another strong monthly repricing with the headline reading expected to be at 0.5% m/m in December. They see fuel, unprocessed food and services prices driving price pressures higher. Last year’s low base means that the year-on-year headline print will jump out of the central bank’s inflation tolerance band, reaching 4.5%. ING’s forecast is only slightly higher than the NBH’s projection, so they don’t expect any major monetary policy or market reaction.
  • JP Morgan say inflation likely jumped to outside the NBH target band in December, to an estimated 4.2% y/y. The main driver of the move is fuel, which JPM see accelerating from 0.7% to 7.7%. Core CPI as measured by the NBH is likely to have stayed relatively flattish.