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Headline CPI Firms, LNY A Possible Driver, Core Inflation Steady

SOUTH KOREA

South Korean Feb CPI was a touch above expectations in terms of headline pressures. We rose 3.1% in y/y terms, versus 3.0% forecast and 2.8% prior. The m/m outcome was in line at 0.5%, while core (ex food and energy) also met expectations at 2.5%y/y (which was also the Jan reading).

  • The chart below plots y/y headline CPI against consumer inflation expectations. We are well off 2022 highs, but not yet back to the 2% BoK inflation target, particularly for expectations.
  • In terms of the detail, the biggest m/m gains in Feb were for food, +1.4% and transport, +1.5%. Recreation also rose 1.0% m/m. These moves may have been driven by the LNY.
  • Only two categories saw falls in m/m terms, while other categories saw only modest rises or flat outcomes in the month.
  • In y/y terms, food +6.9% and clothing at 5.7%, are recording the strongest gains.
  • For the BOK, they are likely to remain in watch and wait mode, to see if pressures, particularly those potentially related to LNY tick down in March.

Fig 1: South Korea CPI Y/Y & Consumer Inflation Expectations

Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg

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