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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
GERMAN DATA
MNI (London)
GERMANY AUG FLASH CPI +0.3% M/M (FCST +0.4%); JUL +0.9% M/M
GERMANY AUG FLASH CPI +7.9% Y/Y (FCST +7.8%); JUL +7.5% Y/Y
GERMANY AUG FLASH HICP +0.4% M/M (FCST +0.4%); JUL +0.8% M/M
GERMANY AUG FLASH HICP +8.8% Y/Y (FCST +8.8%); JUL +8.5% Y/Y
- German CPI accelerated to +7.9% y/y in the flash August data, in line with MNI's forecast of +7.94% y/y. On the month, a slowdown to +0.3% m/m was recorded, implying a substantial downwards pull from the states that are yet to release data as the reading was lower than our forecast of +0.38% m/m and the consensus estimate of +0.4%.
- The harmonised print saw another uptick in August, with prices growing at +0.4% m/m and +8.8% y/y as anticipated. This was a 0.3pp jump from +8.5% y/y in July.
- Energy prices continue to account for the bulk of German inflation (+35.6% y/y in August), followed by food (+16.6% y/y- up 1.8pp), whilst good prices continue to accelerate due to persistent supply chain issues and broad-based inflationary pressures. The effects of the 9-euro ticket and fuel discounts suggest that the implied inflation rate is likely to have been higher.
- Whilst the German headline data saw prices continue to expand, Spanish HICP slowed 0.4pp in the August flash to an elevated 10.3% y/y according to this morning's data, with the month-on-month inflation rate all but stalling at +0.1% as fuel and energy prices fell. The continued 0.3pp uptick in the core print however confirms that broad-based inflation is yet to ease.
- Tomorrow markets will be watching the French CPI release at 0745 BST, followed by Italy and the Eurozone at 1000 BST. French HICP is seen moderating by 0.1pp to +6.7% y/y, whilst the month-on-month will likely accelerate to +0.6%. Italian headline HICP should ease by 0.2pp to +8.2% y/y, whilst price growth should plateau compared to the month prior.
- This leaves the Eurozone aggregate inflation level for August estimated at +0.4% m/m (vs +0.1% m/m in July) and +9.0% y/y (vs. +8.9% in July). As price pressures continue to intensify and core inflation sees no relief, the chance of a 75bp hike from the ECB are increasing going into the September meeting.
Source: MNI / Bloomberg
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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