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Heath Comments on Inflation Indicate Importance of July CPI

MEXICO
  • Interesting comments late last night from Banxico Deputy Governor Jonathan Heath in a Natixis podcast interview released on Wednesday.
    • Banxico Had to Hike After Getting Inflation Path Wrong (BBG)
    • Holding rate would have disappointed market (BBG)
    • No merit to argument that members will accelerate hiking cycle based on the proposed makeup of the board next year (BBG)
    • Unemployment and economic forecasts were part of board members' decision making during the pandemic, but they shouldn't be part of the official Banxico mandate (BBG)
  • Initially the comments appeared hawkish at the margin, however, there is still no clear communication for further imminent tightening prospects. Previous rhetoric from Heath has mentioned the desire for headline inflation to fall nearer to 5% and therefore Monday's CPI data will be very important and remains the focus before the central bank decision on Thursday.
  • Today, Citibanamex publishes its biweekly survey of economists with forecasts for growth, inflation, exchange rate and policy moves.
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