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Heath Says Q3 GDP Likely Negative, CPI To Peak in Q1'22

MEXICO
  • Following the downside surprise to the economic activity data, Deputy Governor Jonathan Heath confirmed that negative growth for the third quarter is likely, despite the surveyed median estimate still being +0.1% for Friday's release.
  • The central banker stated: "It is still feasible to grow 6% this year, but obviously it is going to be a bit more difficult because of this stagnation".
  • Regarding central bank policy, Heath reiterated the November decision will depend on the evolution of economic data and that it is not clear what Banxico will do. He did, however, reiterate that he is most concerned about core CPI. He expects CPI to peak in Q1 2022.
  • For reference, the next Banxico decision is scheduled for November 11.
  • Some weakness in emerging market fx peers, largely on the back of weakness in broad commodities, sees MXN marginally in the red on Wednesday.
  • Up today:
    • 1200BST/0700ET: Sept. Revised Trade Balance, est. -$2.82b, prior -$3.9b
    • 1630BST/1130ET: Mexico to hold swap auction to extend maturities on govt debt
  • Separately, Mexico's senate passed the tax portion of the 2022 budget in general terms, according to a tweet from the lawmaking body. It passed with 67 votes in favour and 43 against. (BBG)
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