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Heath Sees AMLO Fuel Policy as Keeping Inflation Below 9%

MEXICO
  • Banxico’s Heath said late yesterday that inflation would be above 9% in Mexico had it not been for the government subsidizing fuel costs. Heath added that he expects the government to keep these subsidies in place as an extra tool to contain price gains.
  • The central bank’s Quarterly Report lowered its growth outlook for 2022 to 2.2% in its central scenario, down from 2.4% previously. 2023 GDP growth is now seen at 2.4% the in central scenario and the inflation outlook from the last policy meeting was retained.
  • Late yesterday, Goldman Sachs revised their Banxico view and now see a 75bps rate rise in June and likely another one in August. They see the year-end overnight rate at 9.50%, while only clear signs that inflation has peaked is likely to sway the bank away from accelerating tightening at the next meeting.
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