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Hedging Markets Flag SEK, JPY, MXN and ZAR as Most Vulnerable Over CPI

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  • The very front-end of the implied vol market is well bid ahead of the US CPI and PPI releases this week, as markets anticipate a greater chance of volatility following the data releases.
  • The vol premium added this week is not uniform across currencies, however, with overnight vols flagging heightened risk across SEK and JPY in G10, and among MXN and ZAR across emerging market FX.
  • JPY vols have been propped this week by the outsized move lower in USD/JPY spot prices, while SEK may also be seeing some support ahead of the June inflation release for Sweden set for Friday.

Figure 1: CPI vol premium most notable for SEK, JPY, MXN and ZAR

  • The run higher in implied vol has widened break-evens on an overnight USD/JPY straddle to 95-100pips, close to double the 50 pip break-even pricing at the beginning of the week.

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