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US NATGAS: Henry Hub Extends Decline on Mild Weather and Rising Output

US NATGAS
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Henry Hub has fallen to a low for the week of just above $3/mmbtu with warm weather in the coming week limiting demand. Rising domestic production is adding to the downside pressure despite the larger than expected storage withdrawal reported yesterday.

  • The EIA weekly gas inventories for the week ending Jan. 24 showed a withdrawal of 321bcf compared to the seasonal five-year average of 189bcf. Total stocks are down to 2,571bcf and 144bcf below levels seen a year ago and 111bcf below the previous five year average.
  • Lower 48 natural gas demand is again slightly down on the day to 94.5bcf/d, according to Bloomberg. The NOAA 6-10 day forecast shows above normal temperatures forecast in the south and below normal in the north.  Average Lower 48 temperatures suggest potential for cooler temperatures during the second week of Feb.
  • US domestic natural gas production is estimated back up towards record high levels at 107.4bcf/d yesterday compared to an average of 104.6bcf/d since Jan. 24.
  • US LNG export terminal feedgas is showing at 14.74bcf/d today compared to an average of 13.8bcf/d since Jan. 25, according to Bloomberg. Flows have increased primarily driven by a recovery in supply to Corpus Christi and Freeport.
  • Export flows to Mexico was again unchanged on the day at 6.43bcf/d today, according to Bloomberg.
  • Nymex Henry Hub daily aggregate traded futures was at 598k on Jan. 30.
    • US Natgas MAR 25 down 0.9% at 3.02$/mmbtu
    • US Natgas APR 25 down 0.8% at 3.05$/mmbtu
    • US Natgas FEB 26 down 0.4% at 4.22$/mmbtu
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Henry Hub has fallen to a low for the week of just above $3/mmbtu with warm weather in the coming week limiting demand. Rising domestic production is adding to the downside pressure despite the larger than expected storage withdrawal reported yesterday.

  • The EIA weekly gas inventories for the week ending Jan. 24 showed a withdrawal of 321bcf compared to the seasonal five-year average of 189bcf. Total stocks are down to 2,571bcf and 144bcf below levels seen a year ago and 111bcf below the previous five year average.
  • Lower 48 natural gas demand is again slightly down on the day to 94.5bcf/d, according to Bloomberg. The NOAA 6-10 day forecast shows above normal temperatures forecast in the south and below normal in the north.  Average Lower 48 temperatures suggest potential for cooler temperatures during the second week of Feb.
  • US domestic natural gas production is estimated back up towards record high levels at 107.4bcf/d yesterday compared to an average of 104.6bcf/d since Jan. 24.
  • US LNG export terminal feedgas is showing at 14.74bcf/d today compared to an average of 13.8bcf/d since Jan. 25, according to Bloomberg. Flows have increased primarily driven by a recovery in supply to Corpus Christi and Freeport.
  • Export flows to Mexico was again unchanged on the day at 6.43bcf/d today, according to Bloomberg.
  • Nymex Henry Hub daily aggregate traded futures was at 598k on Jan. 30.
    • US Natgas MAR 25 down 0.9% at 3.02$/mmbtu
    • US Natgas APR 25 down 0.8% at 3.05$/mmbtu
    • US Natgas FEB 26 down 0.4% at 4.22$/mmbtu