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NATGAS: Henry Hub Falls as Temperatures to Rise Into Next Week

NATGAS
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Henry Hub front month is trading just above the lows from last week amid small volumes due to the US holiday.  The decline is due to warmer temperatures forecast for later this month and despite the current high demand due to cold and dip in production.

  • Lower 48 natural gas demand has surged well above normal to the highest since January 2024 at 134.1bcf/d today, according to Bloomberg. Average lower 48 temperatures are currently well below normal but expected to gradually recover back to near normal into the coming weekend.
  • US domestic natural gas production is estimated down to 102.5bcf/d yesterday, according to Bloomberg, with Permian output down amid cold weather. The average in the previous week was 104.2bcf/d.
  • US LNG export terminal feedgas is estimated at 13.45bcf/d today, according to Bloomberg. A decline from a high of 15.1bcf/d on Jan. 17 is driven by a drop in Cove Point supply and a reverse in Elba Island LNG flows suggesting supply back into the local grid.
  • Export flows to Mexico are down on the day to 6.03bcf/d today, according to Bloomberg.
  • Nymex Henry Hub daily aggregate traded futures was 754k on Jan. 17.
    • US Natgas FEB 25 down 3.3% at 3.82$/mmbtu
    • US Natgas JUL 25 down 1.3% at 3.84$/mmbtu
    • US Natgas JAN 26 down 0.8% at 4.77$/mmbtu
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Henry Hub front month is trading just above the lows from last week amid small volumes due to the US holiday.  The decline is due to warmer temperatures forecast for later this month and despite the current high demand due to cold and dip in production.

  • Lower 48 natural gas demand has surged well above normal to the highest since January 2024 at 134.1bcf/d today, according to Bloomberg. Average lower 48 temperatures are currently well below normal but expected to gradually recover back to near normal into the coming weekend.
  • US domestic natural gas production is estimated down to 102.5bcf/d yesterday, according to Bloomberg, with Permian output down amid cold weather. The average in the previous week was 104.2bcf/d.
  • US LNG export terminal feedgas is estimated at 13.45bcf/d today, according to Bloomberg. A decline from a high of 15.1bcf/d on Jan. 17 is driven by a drop in Cove Point supply and a reverse in Elba Island LNG flows suggesting supply back into the local grid.
  • Export flows to Mexico are down on the day to 6.03bcf/d today, according to Bloomberg.
  • Nymex Henry Hub daily aggregate traded futures was 754k on Jan. 17.
    • US Natgas FEB 25 down 3.3% at 3.82$/mmbtu
    • US Natgas JUL 25 down 1.3% at 3.84$/mmbtu
    • US Natgas JAN 26 down 0.8% at 4.77$/mmbtu