Henry Hub Higher with Focus on LNG and Production Ahead of EIA STEO

Henry Hub front month extends gains from the last week but remains below the high from yesterday of $2.262/mmbtu with support from recovering LNG export flows and concern for production. The EIA Short Term Energy Outlook due for release at 10:00ET today could provide indications of the future pace of US supply.

• US Natgas JUN 24 up 0.4% at 2.2$/mmbtu
• US Natgas NOV 24 up 0.2% at 3.06$/mmbtu
• US Natgas MAY 25 up 0.2% at 3.08$/mmbtu
• US domestic natural gas production was slightly lower yesterday at 99.8bcf/d according to Bloomberg but still in line with the average seen so far in May. A falling US rig count since February is adding the concern for future US production.
• US LNG export terminal feedgas flows are today estimated at 12.23bcf/d according to Bloomberg. Feedgas flows to the US Freeport terminal have slowly increased to 1.35bcf/d this week suggesting two production trains are now online. Cheniere also does not expect extended outages at its Sabine Pass and Corpus Christi LNG terminals this summer. Flows to Cameron LNG are still about 0.7bcf/d below normal amid scheduled maintenance.
• Lower 48 natural gas demand remains relatively unchanged at 66.7bcf/d according to Bloomberg and still just above the seasonal five year average. The latest NOAA 6-14 day forecast is slightly warmer on the day but still showing above normal temperatures in western areas and below or near normal in the east.
• Export flows to Mexico are holding steady today at 6.05bcf/d according to Bloomberg.
• Nymex Henry Hub daily aggregate traded futures volume was at 483k on May 6.