Henry Hub Set for Another Weekly Decline Amid Production Recovery

Henry Hub front month continues to trend lower with the recovery in production in recent week weighing on prices while natural gas storage levels remain healthy despite a narrowing surplus again this week.

• US domestic natural gas production is almost unchanged from yesterday estimated at 102.2bcf/d, according to Bloomberg. Output has so far this month averaged 102.3bcf/d compared to 100.7bcf/d in June and 100.2bcf/d in May.
• US LNG export terminal feedgas flows are today estimated at 12.97bcf/d, a recovery from near 12bcf/d earlier this week, but supplies to both Sabine Pass and Calcasieu Pass are still slightly below highs from earlier this year.
• Domestic natural gas demand is today up at 77.0bcf/d according to Bloomberg compared to the previous five year average of around 70bcf/d at this time of year. The two week weather forecast is relatively unchanged on the day with strongly above normal temperatures expected on the west coast but below normal in more central areas in the 6-10 day period and with a general theme of above normal holding in the 8-14 day period.
• Export flows to Mexico are today at slightly higher to 6.81bcf/d according to Bloomberg.
• Nymex Henry Hub daily aggregate traded futures volume was down at just 72k yesterday amid the US holiday.
  • US Natgas AUG 24 down 2.2% at 2.37$/mmbtu
  • US Natgas JAN 25 down 1.2% at 3.68$/mmbtu
  • US Natgas JUL 25 down 0.9% at 3.38$/mmbtu