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HICP 2 tenths softer than expected, but partly on clothing prices

ITALY DATA
  • Italian flash HICP for March came in 2 tenths lower than expected in Y/Y terms at +1.3%Y/Y (consensus +1.5%, prior +0.8%). On a M/M basis +1.2%M/M (consensus +1.4%, prior flat).
  • On the national (NIC) basis, it was +1.3%Y/Y in March (consensus +1.4%, prior +0.8%).
  • Core inflation was +2.4%Y/Y (+2.3 prior).
  • The following are all based on the HICP basis rather than NIC:
    • Services ticked up from 3.1%Y/Y in February to 3.3%Y/Y in March.
    • Disinflation in NEIG continued, increasing by +0.8%Y/Y in March (from +1.2%Y/Y in February). Clothing and footwear were the biggest downward driver (but this is a volatile component and this year's +19.5%M/M rise is not hugely below March 2023's +20.8%M/M rise).
    • There was a smaller negative base effect from energy prices. Despite falling -1.7%M/M in March, the Y/Y rate was -17.4%Y/Y in February and picked up to -10.9%Y/Y in March.
    • Food prices rose +0.3%M/M in March with the Y/Y print down from 3.9%Y/Y in February to 3.4%Y/Y in March, with the fall in the Y/Y rate driven by unprocessed food.
    • Transport was an upside contributor rising +0.8%M/M to increase +2.4%Y/Y in March (versus +1.6%Y/Y in February.
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