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HICP Inflation Accelerates to 3.36% Y/Y

NETHERLANDS
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Dutch flash HICP inflation rose to 3.36%Y/Y in June, up from 2.68% in May. This equates to a 0.17% sequential increase. Core HICP inflation accelerated to 3.13% from 2.46% in May - some base effects might be in play here.

  • Concerningly, services inflation remains sticky. The Y/Y print increased 0.19ppt to 5.42% Y/Y (vs 5.23% May). However, there was a 0.27% M/M decline (smaller than the 0.46% M/M decline seen last year). Over the eight years 2016-2023 the mean June services M/M change is a 0.07% increase.
  • However, the bigger driver was within the goods categories. Processed food, beverage and tobacco printed at 4.80% Y/Y (vs 3.44% May), unprocessed foods rose to 2.09%Y/Y (1.61% in May), and non-energy industrial goods (NEIG) came in at -0.48% Y/Y (vs -1.81% May). Energy inflation meanwhile slowed, to 3.44% Y/Y (vs 4.01% May).
  • The national CPI meanwhile rose to 3.2% Y/Y (vs 2.72% May).
  • The print might slightly upwardly bias our Eurozone-wide HICP tracking estimate. The overall EZ print is set to be released at 10:00 BST today.
  • For reference, Netherlands represents 5.7% of the overall 2024 Eurozone HICP basket.

MNI, CBS.NL

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Dutch flash HICP inflation rose to 3.36%Y/Y in June, up from 2.68% in May. This equates to a 0.17% sequential increase. Core HICP inflation accelerated to 3.13% from 2.46% in May - some base effects might be in play here.

  • Concerningly, services inflation remains sticky. The Y/Y print increased 0.19ppt to 5.42% Y/Y (vs 5.23% May). However, there was a 0.27% M/M decline (smaller than the 0.46% M/M decline seen last year). Over the eight years 2016-2023 the mean June services M/M change is a 0.07% increase.
  • However, the bigger driver was within the goods categories. Processed food, beverage and tobacco printed at 4.80% Y/Y (vs 3.44% May), unprocessed foods rose to 2.09%Y/Y (1.61% in May), and non-energy industrial goods (NEIG) came in at -0.48% Y/Y (vs -1.81% May). Energy inflation meanwhile slowed, to 3.44% Y/Y (vs 4.01% May).
  • The national CPI meanwhile rose to 3.2% Y/Y (vs 2.72% May).
  • The print might slightly upwardly bias our Eurozone-wide HICP tracking estimate. The overall EZ print is set to be released at 10:00 BST today.
  • For reference, Netherlands represents 5.7% of the overall 2024 Eurozone HICP basket.

MNI, CBS.NL