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HICP Tracking Above Expected; Core Roughly In Line

EUROZONE DATA

With Portugal's inflation data in, we now have 76% of Euro area HICP reporting - Italy's 17% weighting will come in at the same time as the Eurozone print.

  • An in-line Italy HICP headline print of 5.6% Y/Y would translate into a Eurozone-wide headline HICP print of 5.2%, with upside risks of a 5.3% print. That would be above expectations of 5.1% Y/Y coming into the August inflation round (and unch from 5.3% in Jul).
  • Core HICP is harder to gauge but after France's data this morning it looks like it will come in at or close to the 5.3% Y/Y survey median coming into the week - that would represent a deceleration from the 5.5% in July.
Weighting %AUGUST FLASH HICP Y/Y
Germany27.76.4
France19.65.7
Italy16.65.6e
Spain11.02.4
Netherlands5.63.4
Belgium4.02.4
Austria3.47.6
Portugal2.43.7
Greece2.3NA
Finland1.9NA
Ireland1.54.9
Slovakia0.9NA
Croatia0.8NA
Lithuania0.6NA
Slovenia0.56.1

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