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High EU LNG Imports but Falling TTF Has Reduced US Netback to Europe

LNG

LNG import flows to Europe remained up near record levels on 17 Dec with total imports averaging 490mcm/d over the last week.

  • Imports to NW Europe have gradually increased from around 190mcm/d in the autumn up to a record of 336mcm/d on 15 Dec. Another 20 vessels are expected to arrive into NW European terminals before the end of the month.
  • The high LNG flows have been despite limited sendout from the new floating EemsEnergy Terminal due to weather disruptions. Bloomberg ship tracking last week suggested three vessels idling or diverting due to the disruption.
  • The FSRU for Wilhemshaven arrived on site last week with gas flows due to start on 22 Dec according to Uniper on Friday.
  • The US netback to Europe for February is estimated down to 27.14$/mmbtu compared to the netback to Asia of 28.04$/mmbtu according to Bloomberg. The netback estimation for the following six months are all in favour of flows to Europe.
    • TTF JAN 23 down -3.6% at 104.65€/MWh
    • NBP JAN 23 down -3.5% at 260.5p/th
    • JKM Jan 23 up 0.4% at 35.72$/mmbtu
    • JKM-TTF Jan 23 up 0.8$/mmbtu at 3.05$/mmbtu
    • US Natgas JAN 23 down -2.6% at 5.7$/mmbtu

Source: MNI / Bloomberg

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