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High Global Gas Volatility Until New Supply in 2026: Timera

NATURAL GAS

The global gas market is far from a state of stable equilibrium with Russian supply cuts still reverberating through the market according to Timera Energy.

  • The inelastic nature of global demand response under a new regime of higher prices has driven up market volatility. The market is sensitive to a recovery in Asian or European demand, supply interruptions, recession & rising cost of capital and liquefaction project delays.
  • The global market remains tight across 2024-25, given that lost Russian volumes exceed net global demand reductions and with asymmetric upside price. Inelastic supply and demand response supports higher levels of expected price volatility compared to both pre-crisis conditions and probably also against 2023 levels.
  • The tight regime conditions are likely to ease by 2026 as large volumes of flexible new supply enter the market helping to drive down prices, increase elasticity and dampen volatility.


Source: Timera Energy

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