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Higher Inflation Expectations Stand Out In UMichigan Survey


The key highlight of the US October preliminary UMichigan Consumer Sentiment survey is that 1-Yr infl expectations - which were expected to tick down 0.1pp - instead rose 0.4pp to 5.1%, almost erasing the drop of the previous 2 months.

  • 5Y expectations ticked higher as well. That will be very worrying for the Fed which has cited these metrics before.

From the October prelim survey:

  • Consumer Sentiment 59.8 (58.8 expected, 58.6 prior)
  • Current Econ Conditions 65.3 (59.6 expected, 59.7 prior)
  • Expectations 56.2 (58.3 expected, 58.0 prior)
  • Median 12M Inflation expectations 5.1% (4.6% expected, 4.7% prior)
  • Median 5-10Y inflation expectations 2.9% (2.8% expected, 2.7% prior)

1Y Inflation ExpectationsSource: UMich, BBG

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