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Higher Local Swaps Curve Evidence Of Lingering Concerns

BRAZIL
  • The aforementioned bid in the commodity complex combined with the reversal lower in the Bloomberg Dollar Index (now in negative territory) contributing to some weakness in USDBRL, currently down 0.45% at 5.3614.
  • Despite the buoyant Real, price action appears to be anything but convincing.
  • A shift higher in the Brazil swaps curve indicates the lingering concerns surrounding the government potentially delivering a new round of fiscal stimulus without committing to expenditure cuts to offset its impact. DI rates 4-8bps higher across the curve and appear to be halting the progress of the currency.

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