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Higher Oil Prices Fuel Inflation Worries

INDIA

Bonds fell yesterday as oil prices continue to hold around recent highs, fueling inflation worries. 10-Year yields rose around 1bp to 6.18%. Oil prices have continued to creep higher today though negative risk sentiment could support bonds.

  • Meanwhile The IMF cut its estimate for Indian economic growth to 9.5% from 12.5% citing severe second COVID wave during March-May and expected slow recovery in confidence from that setback. Elsewhere junior Finance Minister Chaudhary said that government revenue collections were up INR 1.29tn from a year earlier at INR 2.46tn.
  • There is no economic data on the docket today, markets await an INR 170bn bill sale to gauge demand for short term securities.
  • The rupee is expected to move in a narrow range ahead of the FOMC rate announcement later today. There has also been chatter that the RBI has been keeping INR rangebound, buying USD inflows from a recent spate of share sales.
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