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Higher On Brexit Headlines; Midnight Gov't Shutdown Eyed

US TSYS SUMMARY

After flatlining in Asia-Pac trade (a 2-tick range for TYs), Tsys jumped just after 0300ET on headlines that EU leadership now sees 'no deal' Brexit as more likely than not (Sunday now seen as a deadline for a deal).

  • The 2-Yr yield is down 0.4bps at 0.133%, 5-Yr is down 1.8bps at 0.3686%, 10-Yr is down 2bps at 0.8865%, and 30-Yr is down 1.3bps at 1.6138%. Mar 10-Yr futures (TY) up 5/32 at 138-01.5 (L: 137-26.5 / H: 138-04).
  • Apart from that Brexit development, it's been quiet overnight, with few macro drivers. The day's focus will be on Capitol Hill, with the Senate yet to approve a stopgap funding measure to ensure the federal gov't doesn't shut down at midnight ET.
  • Alongside this are discussions over COVID relief, with Senate taking up a key Defense bill.
  • Nov PPI (0830ET) and Dec Prelim UMich Sentiment (1000ET) are Friday's data points.
  • Fed's Quarles due to speak on banking supervision (1240ET), but don't expect anything on current monetary policy as per pre-FOMC blackout rules.
  • No supply, but NY Fed buys ~$12.825B of 0-2.25Y Tsys.

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