FREELAND: CANADA WON'T ESCALATE OR BACK DOWN ON US TRADE FIGHT

MNI: PBOC To Aim To Drive Inflation Higher- Advisors

MNI: China To Issue More Bonds As Stimulus Targets Consumption

MNI: PBOC To Aim To Drive Inflation Higher- Advisors

MNI: China To Issue More Bonds As Stimulus Targets Consumption

MNI BRIEF: China Nov M1 Decline Narrows, M2 Slows

EZ/UK T-Bill Calendar: 8/13/28/50-Week BTF Auction on Monday

EZ/UK Bond Supply Calendar: 4.125% Jul-29 Gilt Due on Tuesday

MNI: CANADA OCT WHOLESALE SALES +3.3%; EX-AUTOS +0.5%

MNI EXCLUSIVE: EU-Mercosur Deal Close, But Likely Short-Lived - Officials

AUSTRALIA: 2025 Election Outcome Looking More Uncertain According To Newspoll

© 1982-2024 MNI. All rights reserved.
Terms | Privacy
Log Out
Free Trial

Higher Peak Priced Post-FOMC

STIR

US futures are showing an elevated path of implied rates in after a volatile FOMC, which initially looked dovish with the Statement changes but turned in a hawkish direction with the Powell Q&A.

  • While OIS is still unsure on a 50bp vs 75bp hike at the December meeting, the terminal Funds rate is now seen well above 5%. That is consistent with Powell's message that the FOMC will likely raise its terminal rate estimates at the next meeting, and that it's "very premature to be thinking about pausing".
  • With a 75bp fully priced in just ahead of the November FOMC, and the Fed delivering on that, here is how rate hike prospects changed, pre-FOMC vs current:
  • Dec 2022: 61bp further cumulative hikes to 4.44%. Unchanged
  • Feb 2023: 98bp cumulative hikes to 4.81%. Now 102bp to 4.85%
  • Mar 2023: 115bp cumulative hikes to 4.97%. Now 125bp to 5.09%
  • May 2023: 121bp cumulative hikes to 5.04% (the peak). Now 134bp to 5.17%.
  • Peak now split between May and June 2023.
BulletMarketsFixed Income BulletsHomepage
BulletMarketsFixed Income BulletsHomepage

To read the full story

Close

Why MNI

MNI is the leading provider

of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.

Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.