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Higher Supply Helps New Home Sale Outpace Existing Sales Recovery

US DATA
  • The aforementioned rebound in new home sales relative to a more sluggish recovery in existing home sales has been supported by the sharper correction in new home prices.
  • The median new sale price was down -4.0% Y/Y in June vs -0.9% Y/Y for existing, whilst its decline potentially peaked at -10.4% Y/Y in April compared to -3% Y/Y for existing.
  • One important driver is likely higher supply: the 3.1 months of supply for existing sales compares to 4-4.5 at this time of year in pre-pandemic years, whereas new home sales are equivalent to 7.4 months of supply vs 5-6 months in 2017-19.

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