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Higher Unemp Rate Not So Concerning With Participation Picking Up

US

The US labor force participation rate returned to the highest since March's post-2020 high in August (62.4%), with the employment-to-population ratio matching the May and Mar 2022 highs (60.1%).

  • The overall participation rate is down from 63.4% pre-pandemic. But prime-age participation is picking up quickly: 82.8% in Aug, up 0.4pp and nearing the 83.1% high pre-pandemic.
  • The higher participation rate is responsible for the unexpected uptick in the unemployment rate in August. So it's a positive development for the supply side of the economy (ie less inflation pressure), and means the rise in the unemployment rate to the highest since February doesn't translate into significant concern over the health of the labor market.

Source: BLS, MNI

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