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Free AccessHigher US Real Yields Weighs On SEA FX, Won Rebounds
USD/Asia pairs are mixed today, with plays sensitive to US yield developments, like those in South East Asia and INR, generally underperforming the likes of CNH, KRW and SGD.
- USD/CNH is back below 7.0000, around 0.15% firmer in CNH terms. The 20-day EMA at 7.0167 looks to be acting as a near term resistance point. The CNY fixing bias was slightly firmer compared to yesterday but remains within recent ranges. The US Secretary of State and China Foreign Minister also spoke earlier today.
- 1 month USD/KRW gapped lower after onshore spot opened. We got to just below 1280 before USD support emerged (last around 1281/82). Onshore equities are noticeably weaker today (-1.70%, with outflows from offshore investors resuming).
- USD/IDR is slightly higher, last at 15612. FX remains front and centre of BI thinking. The central bank unveiling a new tool to attract export receipts back into the local currency at yesterday's policy meeting. BI Governor Warjiyo stated the central bank will offer attractive yield to entice such earnings. IDR has been an underperformer through Q4 to date, -2.43%, the worst in EM Asia. The IDR NEER (J.P. Morgan Index) has fallen nearly 8% from its late September peak.
- USD/SGD is slightly lower at 1.3520, with SGD FX outperforming other Asian currencies today. November inflation data showed price pressures remained sticky. Headline was slightly firmer than expected at 6.7%y/y (6.5%y/y forecast. 6.7% prior), while core inflation remained at 5.1% y/y (5.0% forecast). While inflation metrics aren't trending higher, we aren't rolling over rapidly either, which is supportive for SGD from a MAS policy standpoint. Note the Goldman Sachs NEER estimate is edging higher today. Also released IP growth figures disappointed, -3.2%y/y, against -1.2% forecast.
- USD/PHP has rebounded today, back to 55.33, +0.40% for the session. USD/THB is also higher, back above 34.80, also +0.40% for the session, while spot USD/INR is creeping back towards 82.90. Firmer US yields, particularly in the real yield space, have likely weighed at the margins today.
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Why MNI
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