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Higher USD/CNY Fixing Drives USD/CNH Bounce

CNH

The USD/CNY fixing came in at 7.1668, against a Bloomberg consensus of 7.2198.

  • Still well below market expectations, but only a miss of -530pips in USD/CNY terms, which is below recent fixing error outcomes.
  • Importantly, the actual fixing came in at 7.1668, the highest since 2008, see the chart below. Note onshore spot has an upside ceiling of 7.3101 today, versus yesterday's close of 7.2630.
  • USD/CNH has spiked following the fixing outcome. The pair got above 7.3600 (high of 7.3686), but we are now back to the 7.3500/50 region.
  • The offset early news around easing offshore borrowing requirements, which is designed to encourage capital inflows.

Fig 1: USD/CNY Fixing - Highest Since 2008

Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg

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