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Hike tomorrow brought into question by this data

UK DATA
  • We noted in our inflation preview that a services CPI number notably softer than 7.2%Y/Y (absent some strange temporary factors) would be enough to move market pricing for tomorrow's meeting to around 50/50.
  • Air fares are volatile, so the magnitude of this miss might need to be looked at with a pinch of salt, but this is undeniably a weak number and will throw up some concerns for the doves.
  • The MNI Markets team now expect a much more split decision at tomorrow's meeting. We are pretty much on the fence whether we see a hike or not. Even if we do see a hike, we would now expect more dovish dissenters than Dhingra alone.
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