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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
STIR FUTURES
Global STIR futures continue to move higher as markets reassess central bank hiking paths despite the higher than expected inflation prints from Italy and some German regions.
- Eurodollar futures the biggest G3 moves now, with Reds up to 18.5 ticks higher. Markets now pricing a little under 120bp of Fed hikes this year from around 135bp yesterday and highs of 170bps seen before the Ukrainian invasion.
- SONIA futures seeing Greens/Blues up 20 ticks with a flattening of the curve through Whites and Reds. Markets now price a further 110bp of hikes this year. 25bp hikes are fully priced for March, May and June, but two weeks ago we were pricing 45bp for March, now we are pricing 26bp. As recently as Friday, markets were pricing 130bp of hikes in 2022 and saw a peak of 167bp priced on 15 February. The MNI Markets team continues to look for 25bp hikes in both March and May, but the outlook beyond then continues to remain uncertain. We may be getting closer to a place where the risk/reward of being long is starting to look less attractive given the over 50bp move so far this year.
- For Euribor futures, ahead of the release of the MNI sources piece yesterday, around 31bp of hikes were priced for 2022, now 18.4bp is priced at the time of writing. Reds/Greens/Blues up 15-17 ticks on the day, too.
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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