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Watching The 50-Day EMA


Bearish Focus


Updated Barclays/Bbg Extension Estimates for US


Late Session Selling

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Taiwan dollar under pressure on Tuesday, USD/TWD rising for a third straight session to hit the highest level since April. The pair last up 0.035 at 28.08 after earlier hitting 28.10.

  • Markets await export orders data later in the session, consensus is for export orders to rise 30.0% in June after a 34.5% in May, which would be the lowest rise since November 2020. Even though the pace is expected to moderate a positive print would be the sixteenth straight month of expansion as strong demand for tech continues.
  • TWD remains under pressure on the back of dividend remittances with foreigners expected to convert a large portion of the local currency dividends they are set to receive this year. Last year TWD was resilient amid a softer USD and strong demand for tech stocks, while this year investors are expected to seek other sectors outside of Taiwan. TSMC are expected to pay $51bn in dividends this year with the bulk coming in the next month.
  • Elsewhere, the Taiwanese government has said it will enact measures to help industries and individuals impacted by the pandemic, but currently with the soft lockdown still in effect it is not right to encourage consumption. It was reported yesterday that the government will gradually ease COVID-19 restrictions, but can tighten again if new cases rise. The health minister added that it is more likely border controls will be tightened rather than relaxed.