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Holding 10bp Of Cuts For March After Powell Messaging

STIR
  • Fed Funds implied for near-term meetings hold their shunt higher for near-term meetings, with 10bp of cuts for March after Powell suggested a March cut was not the most likely case.
  • Meetings for later in 2024 have lifted overnight but keep to the dovish reaction seen from the press conference, with the net moves undoing most of the initially hawkish take on the announcement - see table.
  • Cumulative cuts: 10bp for Mar, 34bp for May, 60bp for Jun and 144bp for Dec.
  • Today sees potential spillover from the BoE decision plus further important labor data with productivity for Q4 and layoffs for Jan before the ISM manufacturing survey for Jan.

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