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Holding Above 0.7400 But Headwinds Abound

AUD

AUD/USD rose through the session on Thursday, the pair rsose as high at 0.7415 before pulling back into the close, last up 1 pip at 0.7405.

  • From a technical perspective AUD/USD remains in a range. The trend outlook is unchanged and bearish. This follows the recent breach of a channel base drawn from the Feb 25 high. Despite the fact that price has moved back inside the channel area, the move lower marks an important technical break, signalling potential for 0.7235 next, a 1.236 projection of the Feb 25 - Apr 1 - May 10 price swing. On the upside, initial resistance is at 0.7429, Jul 19 high.
  • A reminder that late in the local day on Thursday saw Victoria announced a 7-day COVID-driven lockdown. Iron ore could also provide a headwind, futures slipped over 5% during yesterday's Asia-Pac session and were under pressure throughout the rest of the day. China has asked mills to limit this year's output to no more than the 2020 volume after the first-half production grew nearly 12% Y/Y.
  • The release of the RBA's SoMP and RBA Governor Lowe's semi-annual testimony in front of the House of Representatives Standing Committee on Economicss headline locally today, while trade data from China could also provide impetus.
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