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Holding Above $1.09, Australia CPI On Tap

AUDNZD

AUD/NZD firmed ~0.5% on Tuesday as AUD outperformed in the G-10 space after the latest Chinese Politburo statement signalled more potential stimulus in the domestic economy.

  • The cross is holding above $1.09 handle for now, and last prints at $1.0910/20.
  • Rate differentials, observed via 2-Year swaps, remain stable and last sit at -105bps.
  • The 20-Day EMA has crossed the 200-Day EMA signalling scope for more potential upside in the cross. Bulls target a break of high from June 23 ($1.0940) which opens high from 21 June ($1.1017) and $1.1088 the year to date high.
  • Bears look to break the 20-Day EMA ($1.0851), a break through here opens $1.08 handle and the low from 17 July at $1.0725.
  • Due to cross in ~2 hours we have Q2 CPI from Australia, which is estimated to tick lower to 1.0% Q/Q. The June CPI print also crosses, a downtick to 5.4% Y/Y is expected.
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