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Holding Bulk Of Bear Steepening With 2Y Supply Up Next

US TSYS
  • Cash Tsys trade 1-6bps cheaper, paring most recent losses but for the most part continuing to steepen: 2s10s pushes to -25.5bps (back to Friday’s close and off yesterday’s flats of -30bps) and 5s30s to 32.5bps (back to early Fri levels off early Monday lows of 26bps).
  • Treasuries continue to outperform EGBs amidst limited headline drivers. Moves through early European hours could be seen as delayed BoJ impetus and impending EU bond supply from the dual tranche (with January's total bond sale tally of €293bln marking the busiest January in European bond sales ever). There is less to hang more recent cheapening on aside from the bounce off lows for crude futures (admittedly still within Monday’s range).
  • TYH4 has touched session lows of 111-04+ (111-06 at typing) to tie with week lows seen after Monday’s open. The bear cycle is seen remaining in play but it doesn’t yet trouble support at 110-26 (Jan 19 low).
  • The aforementioned bill upsizing was anticipated, with supply focus on the upcoming 2Y auction.

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