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AUSSIE BONDS: Holding Cheaper, Narrow Ranges On A Data Light Session

AUSSIE BONDS
BulletAPACFixed Income BulletsAustraliaMarkets

ACGBs (YM -4.0 & XM -5.5) are cheaper after dealing in relatively narrow ranges on a second-tier data day.

  • Australia's household spending rose 0.4% m/m in December versus a revised +0.8% in November. Five of the nine spending categories advanced, driven by a third straight increase in discretionary goods and services.
  • The ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence index rose to 88.5 in the week of Jan. 27 to Feb. 2 from 86, marking the highest level since May 2022.
  • Cash US tsys are ~1bp cheaper in today’s Asia-Pac session after yesterday’s modest sell-off following news that President Trump agreed to delay a 25% tariff on Mexico and Canada.
  • Cash ACGBs are 4bps cheaper with the AU-US 10-year yield differential at -14bps.
  • Swap rates are 3-4bps higher.
  • The bills strip has bear-steepened with pricing -1 to -4.
  • RBA-dated OIS pricing is flat to 2bps firmer across meetings today. A 25bp rate cut is more than fully priced for April (135%), with the probability of a February cut at 91% (based on an effective cash rate of 4.34%).
  • The AOFM announced the issue by syndication of a new 4.25% 21 March 2036 Treasury Bond. The issue will be of a benchmark size. Initial price guidance is a spread of 2 to 5bps to XMH5. The issue is expected to be priced tomorrow.
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ACGBs (YM -4.0 & XM -5.5) are cheaper after dealing in relatively narrow ranges on a second-tier data day.

  • Australia's household spending rose 0.4% m/m in December versus a revised +0.8% in November. Five of the nine spending categories advanced, driven by a third straight increase in discretionary goods and services.
  • The ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence index rose to 88.5 in the week of Jan. 27 to Feb. 2 from 86, marking the highest level since May 2022.
  • Cash US tsys are ~1bp cheaper in today’s Asia-Pac session after yesterday’s modest sell-off following news that President Trump agreed to delay a 25% tariff on Mexico and Canada.
  • Cash ACGBs are 4bps cheaper with the AU-US 10-year yield differential at -14bps.
  • Swap rates are 3-4bps higher.
  • The bills strip has bear-steepened with pricing -1 to -4.
  • RBA-dated OIS pricing is flat to 2bps firmer across meetings today. A 25bp rate cut is more than fully priced for April (135%), with the probability of a February cut at 91% (based on an effective cash rate of 4.34%).
  • The AOFM announced the issue by syndication of a new 4.25% 21 March 2036 Treasury Bond. The issue will be of a benchmark size. Initial price guidance is a spread of 2 to 5bps to XMH5. The issue is expected to be priced tomorrow.