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Holding Close To Recent Highs


Brent is holding above $89/bbl, slightly firmer than NY closing levels. WTI is just below recent highs above $84/bbl (last $83.70), consolidating following yesterday's +5% gain. This comes ahead of tomorrow's OPEC+ meeting, which will decide production targets for November.

  • As we noted last week, the strong sense is a production cut will be announced, it's just a question of how large it will be. This comes after Q3 saw the largest drop in oil prices since Q1 2020.
  • Analysts from Goldman Sachs and ANZ have stated a cut of more than 1 million bpd could be realized. This is what RBC stated as a risk last week.
  • Such a move, in terms of its actual impact on the supply/demand balance, may be muted though given a number of OPEC+ countries are already producing their current quota.
  • The other focus point will be EU looking to finalize fresh sanctions on Russia, including an oil price cap.

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