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Holding Lower Post-NFPs As 75bp Fed Hike Increasingly Priced


Gold deals ~$2/oz softer to print ~$1,693/oz, operating a little above Friday’s worst levels at writing. The precious metal has held on to the bulk of its losses from Friday as the USD (DXY) hovers just shy of two-week highs.

  • To recap, the precious metal closed ~$18 lower on Friday after falling to session lows (at $1,690.7/oz) as the release of better-than-expected U.S. NFPs saw expectations for Fed hawkishness return to the space, with the DXY and nominal U.S. Tsy yields pushing higher after.
  • Nov FOMC dated OIS now price in ~72 bp of tightening at that meeting, pointing to an ~88% chance of a 75bp rate hike, operating at around its highest level since the Sep FOMC.
  • Focus for gold now turns to U.S. CPI due later this week on Thursday.
  • From a technical perspective, gold has breached initial support at $1,695.2 (former trendline resistance), exposing further support at $1,659.7 (Oct 3 low). On the other hand, initial resistance is seen at $1,729.5 (Oct 4 high).

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