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Holding Narrow Range Near Lows, NY MFG Index Surprise

US TSYS
  • Treasury futures are holding a narrow range since late morning, near session lows in the aftermath of a surprising reaction to Empire State Manufacturing index release.
  • The April data was far stronger than expected, bouncing from -24.6 to +10.8 (cons -18.0). The manufacturing index maintains its particularly volatile recent history, with a standard deviation of nearly 20pts since 2021, although the upside surprise does leave it at the highest since Jul’22.
  • Following a period of two way trade, Treasury futures extended lows into late morning trade, front month 10Y futures breached 50-day EMA technical support of 114-14 to mark a session low of 114-09.
  • Attention turned to 114-15, the 50-day EMA and 114-07, the Mar 29, 30 low. Clearance of this support zone would strengthen any developing bearish threat and expose 113.23, a Fibonacci retracement. The move lower - for now - is considered corrective.
  • No breakthrough on debt ceiling: Sen Schumer maintains that House Speaker McCarthy hasn't yet presented a budget or formal list of Republican priorities which the White House has stated is a condition of negotiations.
  • Look ahead: Building Permits, Housing Starts and Fed Speak Tuesday, Atlanta Fed Pres Bostic interview on CNBC at 1100ET followed by Fed Gov Bowman discussion on digital currency, text, moderated Q&A at 1300ET.
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