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Holding Near Early Friday Highs

US TSYS
  • Front month Treasury futures extended early gains after April Dallas Fed manufacturing index comes out much weaker than expected -23.4 vs. -12.0 est. June 10Y futures marking a session high of 114-31 (+16), a tick away from Friday's early session high of 114-15.
  • Despite the rebound today, 10Y futures remain vulnerable and recent activity appears to be a bear flag - a bearish continuation pattern that reinforces the current downtrend. The contract has recently traded through the 20- and 50-day EMAs and pierced 114-00. The move lower opens 113-23, a Fibonacci retracement.
  • On the upside, initial firm resistance is at 115-00, Friday’s high. A break and close above this level would ease the current bearish threat.
  • Otherwise, Monday was a quiet start to the week with the Federal Reserve in policy blackout through May 4.
  • Focus on Tuesday's Data Calendar with House Price Index, New Home Sales, Consumer Confidence and US Tsy $42B 2Y Note auction (91282CGX3) in the afternoon.
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