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Holding Richer But Off Best Levels, Light Local Calendar Ahead Of Thursday’s Jobs Data

AUSSIE BONDS

ACGBs (YM +3.0 & XM +3.0) remain richer but are off Sydney session highs.

  • With the domestic calendar empty, the local market has drifted lower with the slight cheapening in cash US tsys in today’s Asia-Pac session. In the absence of news flow, this weakening most likely reflects some profit-taking after yesterday’s solid rally.
  • The market’s focus now turns to today’s June PPI and UofM Sentiment and the start of the latest equity earnings cycle: Wells Fargo, Bank of NY Mellon, JP Morgan and Citigroup headlining.
  • Cash ACGBs are 3-4bps richer, with the AU-US 10-year yield differential at +13bps.
  • Today’s ACGB Nov-29 supply was priced comfortably through mids, but the cover ratio declined to 3.100x from 3.2286x prior.
  • Swap rates are 2-4bps lower, with the 3s10s curve steeper.
  • The bills strip has bull-flattened, with pricing +2 to +5.
  • RBA-dated OIS pricing is 3-6bps softer for meetings beyond August. Terminal rate expectations sit at 4.44%.
  • The local calendar is light ahead of Thursday’s release of the June Employment Report.
  • Tomorrow, the AOFM plans to sell A$300mn of the 1.75% 21 June 2051 bond on Monday, A$500mn of the 3.00% 21 November 2033 bond on Wednesday and A$700mn of the 2.75% 21 November 2027 bond on Friday.
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