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Holding Richer On China GDP Miss

US TSYS
  • Cash Tsys have seen a mostly one directional move richer today after the late open, led by 5-10Y tenors seemingly on the European reaction to softer than expected China GDP growth and perhaps resumed weakness in oil after some Saudi headline confusion.
  • There haven’t been any other meaningful, overt triggers for the bounce from session cheaps in core global FI markets, with reports alluding to continued Sino-U.S. tensions (surrounding a potential Taiwanese official stopping off in the U.S. in August) an unlikely driver.
  • 2YY -4.4bp at 4.721%, 5YY -5.8bp at 3.989%, 10YY -5.5bp at 3.777%, 30YY -3.8bp at 3.890%. 2s10s consolidates Friday’s flattening at -94bps.
  • TYU3 trades 9+ ticks higher at 112-27+ off a high of 112-29+ but remains within Friday’s range, on subdued volumes of 185k owning to the Japan closure. Initial resistance sits at 113-03 (Jul 13 high) with focus on the key resistance at the 50-day EMA of 113-11+, whilst a renewed push lower could see 112-07+ (Jul 13 low).
  • Data: Empire mfg Jul (0830ET)
  • Bill issuance: US Tsy $65B 13W, $58B 26W Bill auctions (1130ET)
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