MNI BRIEF: Beijing Reveals 2024 Bond Issuance Plan

MNI BRIEF: BOJ Cuts Scale Of 5-10 Year JGB Buying By JPY50 Bln

MNI: PBOC Conducts CNY2 Bln Via OMO Mon; Liquidity Unchanged

MNI: PBOC Sets Yuan Parity Higher At 7.1030 Mon; -4.18% Y/Y

CHINA PBOC INJECTS CNY2 BILLION VIA 7-DAY REVERSE REPOS MON

CHINA SETS YUAN CENTRAL PARITY AT 7.1030 MON VS 7.1011

INDON Sov Curve Steady, Consumer Confidence Rose To 11-Month High

MNI BRIEF: China April CPI Edges Up To 0.3% Y/y

CHINA JAN-APR NEW LOANS CNY10.19 TRLN VS JAN-MAR CNY9.46 TRLN

RPT-MNI: Canada Sticks To Fiscal Anchors, Spends Chunk Of Windfall

MNI BRIEF: Poilievre Calls QE 'Scam' And Would Limit BOC Remit

MNI: Growth Drag From Net Zero Carbon Goal Can Be Offset-OECD

© 1982-2023 MNI. All rights reserved.
Terms | Privacy
Log Out
Free Trial

Holding Sharply Cheaper After Q1 CPI Surprises On The Upside, ANZAC Holiday Tomorrow

AUSSIE BONDS
BulletMarketsFixed Income BulletsHomepage

ACGBs (YM -18.0 & XM -13.0) are sharply cheaper after Q1 CPI data surprised on the upside across all measures. Headline printed +1.0 q/q and +3.5% y/y versus expectations of +0.8% and +3.4% respectively. Trimmed Mean CPI printed +1.0% q/q and +4.0% y/y versus expectations of +0.8% and +3.8% respectively.

  • Inflation is edging closer to the RBA's target range, but the robust quarterly increases and the uptick observed in March, if sustained, pose a threat to this progress. The likelihood of rate cuts being considered in 2024 appears remote, if not off the table.
  • To meet the RBA’s Q2 forecasts a significant but not unlikely moderation is required in Q2 to around 0.5-0.6% q/q.
  • Cash ACGBs are 9-13bps cheaper after the data and 13-18bps cheaper on the day. The AU-US 10-year yield differential is 11bps higher at -22bps.
  • Swap rates are 8-13bps higher after the data and 12-18bps higher on the day. The 3s10s curve is 6bps flatter versus yesterday’s close.
  • The bills strip has sharply bear-steepened, with pricing -9 to -20.
  • RBA-dated OIS pricing is 9-14bps firmer for meetings beyond June after the data. A cumulative 8bps of easing is priced by year-end versus 17bps before the data.
  • The Australian and NZ markets are closed tomorrow for the ANZAC Day holiday.
211 words

To read the full story

Close

Why MNI

MNI is the leading provider

of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.

Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.

ACGBs (YM -18.0 & XM -13.0) are sharply cheaper after Q1 CPI data surprised on the upside across all measures. Headline printed +1.0 q/q and +3.5% y/y versus expectations of +0.8% and +3.4% respectively. Trimmed Mean CPI printed +1.0% q/q and +4.0% y/y versus expectations of +0.8% and +3.8% respectively.

  • Inflation is edging closer to the RBA's target range, but the robust quarterly increases and the uptick observed in March, if sustained, pose a threat to this progress. The likelihood of rate cuts being considered in 2024 appears remote, if not off the table.
  • To meet the RBA’s Q2 forecasts a significant but not unlikely moderation is required in Q2 to around 0.5-0.6% q/q.
  • Cash ACGBs are 9-13bps cheaper after the data and 13-18bps cheaper on the day. The AU-US 10-year yield differential is 11bps higher at -22bps.
  • Swap rates are 8-13bps higher after the data and 12-18bps higher on the day. The 3s10s curve is 6bps flatter versus yesterday’s close.
  • The bills strip has sharply bear-steepened, with pricing -9 to -20.
  • RBA-dated OIS pricing is 9-14bps firmer for meetings beyond June after the data. A cumulative 8bps of easing is priced by year-end versus 17bps before the data.
  • The Australian and NZ markets are closed tomorrow for the ANZAC Day holiday.