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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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Free AccessHolding The Post-FOMC Rally Despite Jobs Data Beat
ACGBs (YM +22.0 & XM +18.2) remain sharply richer but little changed after a comfortable headline job beat of +61.5k versus +11.5k forecast. Most of the jobs created were full-time as well. The u/e rate ticked up to 3.9%, (3.8% forecast) but this reflected a bounce in the participation rate to 67.2% (66.9% forecast).
- Meanwhile, Melbourne Institute consumer inflation expectations eased to 4.5% in December from 4.9%, the lowest since January 2022.
- Cash US tsys are dealing 3-8bps richer in today's Asia-Pac session after yesterday's strong post-FOMC rally. Local participants are likely digesting the clearest signal yet that the Fed has finished its aggressive monetary-tightening campaign, by forecasting a series of rate cuts next year.
- Cash ACGBs are 18-21bps richer, with the AU-US 10-year yield differential 4bps wider at 13bps.
- Swap rates are 18-21bps lower, with the 3s10s curve steeper.
- The bills strip has bull-flattened, with pricing +12 to +28.
- RBA-dated OIS pricing is 9-29bps softer on the day across meetings beyond Feb’24. There has been little net movement since the data release. 63bps of easing is priced by Feb’25.
- Tomorrow, the local calendar sees Flash Judo Bank PMI data.
- ICYMI, based on MYEFO forecasts, the issuance of Treasury Bonds has been reduced to around A$50bn ($23.6bn has been completed): AOFM.
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.