At The Top End Of Recent Ranges

Oil prices have been range bound today, with Brent crude dips back $96/bbl supported, but unable to make a push towards $97/bbl. We are just off NY closing levels for both Brent and WTI. We currently sit at the upper end of the range for the past few sessions though, with dips sub $94/bbl supported for Brent. WTI is just under $90.50/bbl currently, behaving in a similar fashion.

• The near term focus will be on the US Energy Information Association, which will release a report later today on the short term outlook. This will be followed by OPEC and IEA reports on Thursday.
• US gasoline demand is generally lagging 2021 summer trends, even as pump prices continue to trend down, which are now their lowest level in 5 months.
• Another focus point is that the degree of tightness in oil markets continues to moderate, at least looking at the prompt spread (the difference between the two nearest contracts for Brent). We are now back to +$1.53/bbl, which is fresh lows back to mid-May. This measure got close to +$3.40/bbl in early July.
• Finally, talks have concluded in Vienna on reviving the US-Iran nuclear deal. Both sides now have a few weeks to decide whether or not to re-enter the deal, which could see the return of Iranian oil flows.