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- Recovery off Friday's low of $1.1952, struggled to break back above $1.2054 during European morning Monday, the rate finding a base at $1.2020 into NY.
- NY took rate through $1.2054/60 to $1.2066 before momentum faded, the rate dropping to $1.2033 into the 1600GMT fix before recovering to $1.2057, closing the day around $1.2050.
- Early consolidation in Asia before the USD came under fresh pressure in Tokyo, led by USD/JPY's deeper corrective pullback, EUR/USD pushed up to $1.2082 with pullbacks holding shallow ahead of the European open.
- Support $1.2020/10, with talk that the demand reported last week into $1.1950 has moved up to $1.2000($1.2002 61.8% $1.1952-1.2082, 76.4% $1.1983). Resistance $1.2088(Feb02 high) ahead of $1.2095/1.2100($1.2097/99 61.8% 1.2349-1.1952/61.8% 1.2190-1.1952), a break to expose $1.2108(76.4% $1.2156-1.1952).
- Germany Trade data provides early interest at 0700GMT ahead of Italy IP at 0900GMT.
- ECB Lane(dove) speaks at 1500GMT. Fed Bullard speaks at 1700GMT.
- USD seen under fresh pressure on continued reflation discussions, with focus on US fiscal stimulus headlines.
- MNI Techs: EURUSD edges higher, extending the recovery off Friday's 1.1952 low. Friday's activity as highlighted yesterday, is a potential bullish engulfing reversal. If correct, the pattern suggests scope for a recovery and also highlights a base at last week's low. A strong resistance resides at 1.2092/98, the 50- and 20-day EMAs. A break would be bullish. On the downside, sub 1.1952 levels would resume recent bearish pressure.