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EGBS: Holger Sandte at Nordea warns of potential consequences in the Spanish
referendum "financial markets will probably not wake up on Monday fearing that
Spain is set to lose a strong region accounting for some 20% of Spanish GDP.
Still, considering how determined the Catalan government has been on the matter,
a further escalation cannot be ruled out. Considering the almost non-existent
pricing of such risks, defensive positioning especially in Spanish assets is
- Nomura also highlight that the Catalan referendum has greater potential for
Spanish spread widening than tightening given that there has been no significant
movement in Spanish spreads, so far. Specifically, Nomura chooses "to positions
via a spread compression trade on 10yr BTP/SPGB"