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BRC-KPMG Retail Sales Fell For The First Time (ex Easter Anomaly) Since Jun-22

UK DATA

UK Total Retail Sales fell for the first time since June 2022 (excluding the volatile April Easter effect data) by 0.2% Y/Y (vs 0.8% consensus, and growth of 0.7% in May).

  • Similarly Like-For-Like Sales fell for the first time since June 2022 (excluding the April anomaly) printing -0.5% Y/Y (vs 0.4% prior).
  • As this is a value rather than volume series, the slowdown in sales continue to reflect disinflation in goods prices.
  • Total retail sales remains above the 3-month average decline of 1.1% (due to the volatile April reading) but firmly below the 12-month average growth of 1.5%.
  • The move downwards in total sales was broad-based with Food Sales continuing to soften for the eighth consecutive month to +1.1% 3M Y/Y in the 3-months ending June (vs +3.6% prior) whilst the reduction in Non-Food Sales has increased more than the April low to -2.9% 3M Y/Y (vs -2.4% prior).
  • The trend in the ONS series and BRC-KPMG series indicates that the ONS series should also see sales softening in the next few months, due to in part the weather. Chief Executive of the BRC said the poor performance was due to the "cooler weather during the first half of the month. Sales of weather-sensitive categories such as clothing and footwear, as well as DIY and gardening were hit particularly hard".
  • Data covers 26 May - 29 June 2024.

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