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ECB: Holzmann Maintains Hawkish Bias, Says Jan Meeting Outcome Unclear

ECB
BundesbankCentral Bank NewsEM BulletEuropean Central BankEmerging Market NewsCEEMEAEurozoneGermanyBulletMarketsFixed Income BulletsForeign Exchange Bullets

ECB GC member Holzmann maintains his hawkish bias in an interview with POLITICO.

  • He points to energy price risks and the move lower in the EUR (although the latter is a "mixed blessing" in his eyes) as threats to the inflation outlook, meaning that the outcome of the January ECB decision is not a foregone conclusion in his eyes.
  • He said the same last week.
  • Bund futures unmoved since his comments, EUR/USD a handful of pips higher, back above 1.0300 (highs of 1.0308), but still shy of Friday’s high at 1.0330.
  • ECB-dated OIS showed ~90% odds of a 25bp cut later this month as of Friday’s close.
  • Holzmann’s view shouldn’t move that pricing too much/at all, given his hawkish history, broader support for further ECB rate cuts within the GC and the fact that he already said as much last week.
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ECB GC member Holzmann maintains his hawkish bias in an interview with POLITICO.

  • He points to energy price risks and the move lower in the EUR (although the latter is a "mixed blessing" in his eyes) as threats to the inflation outlook, meaning that the outcome of the January ECB decision is not a foregone conclusion in his eyes.
  • He said the same last week.
  • Bund futures unmoved since his comments, EUR/USD a handful of pips higher, back above 1.0300 (highs of 1.0308), but still shy of Friday’s high at 1.0330.
  • ECB-dated OIS showed ~90% odds of a 25bp cut later this month as of Friday’s close.
  • Holzmann’s view shouldn’t move that pricing too much/at all, given his hawkish history, broader support for further ECB rate cuts within the GC and the fact that he already said as much last week.