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Holzmann Re-iterates That a June Cut Is Possible

STIR

ECB-dated OIS contracts remain within recent ranges, with 93bps of easing priced through the remainder of '24 and 25bps priced through the June meeting.

  • In an interview with Reuters this morning, ECB's Holzmann noted that a June cut was possible "if the data allows it", while an April cut was unsurprisingly ruled out.
  • This aligns with his comments in an interview with MNI on March 12: "The vision for June is very much related to the extent to which our projections turn out to be true". (see here).
  • Euribor futures are flat to +3.0 ticks though the blues, with global core FI a touch higher overnight.
  • Today's domestic calendar is headlined by the Eurozone-wide March HICP flash print at 1000BST/1100CET. Current tracking from the national-level data released over the past week suggests downside risks to the 2.5% Y/Y headline consensus.
  • The February Eurozone unemployment rate is also scheduled, expected steady at 6.4%, while the ECB’s de Cos speaks at 1400BST.
  • The US ISM services and ADP employment change data will also garner cross-market interest this afternoon.
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ECB-dated OIS contracts remain within recent ranges, with 93bps of easing priced through the remainder of '24 and 25bps priced through the June meeting.

  • In an interview with Reuters this morning, ECB's Holzmann noted that a June cut was possible "if the data allows it", while an April cut was unsurprisingly ruled out.
  • This aligns with his comments in an interview with MNI on March 12: "The vision for June is very much related to the extent to which our projections turn out to be true". (see here).
  • Euribor futures are flat to +3.0 ticks though the blues, with global core FI a touch higher overnight.
  • Today's domestic calendar is headlined by the Eurozone-wide March HICP flash print at 1000BST/1100CET. Current tracking from the national-level data released over the past week suggests downside risks to the 2.5% Y/Y headline consensus.
  • The February Eurozone unemployment rate is also scheduled, expected steady at 6.4%, while the ECB’s de Cos speaks at 1400BST.
  • The US ISM services and ADP employment change data will also garner cross-market interest this afternoon.