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Holzmann Retains Position as Arch-Hawk at ECB

ECB
  • Comments from ECB's Nagel and ECB's Holzmann crossing ahead of the World Economic Forum in Davos:
  • ECB's Nagel states that it is too early to talk about rate cuts, and inflation is still too high. This leaves markets as over-optimistic, and "maybe we can wait for Summer break" before mulling rate cuts.
  • Holzmann of the Austria central bank, contrasts in saying that markets shouldn't count on ECB rate cuts at all in 2024, and there is no reason now to talk about a cut. He cites rate-cut expectations as optimistic, and doesn't see a "real" recession coming, barring a shock to the economy.
  • Holzmann well known as being one of the most hawkish members on the GC, and living up to that reputation in this Davos WEF speech. However, Holzmann's comment "Shouldn't count on rate cuts at all in 2024" is counter to Nagel's "Maybe we can wait for summer break" and Lane's preference for waiting until end-April, after the receipt of Eurostat national accounts data. This keeps Holzmann as one of the arch-hawks on the GC going forward.

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